SV Elversberg 3–0 Eintracht Braunschweig

SV Elversberg

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Eintracht Braunschweig

M. Damar 21', 18'

F. Asllani 11'

5/10/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 33URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Elversberg53%

×Draw25%

Eintracht Braunschweig23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV ElversbergExpected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.96

SV Elversberg

1.61

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.96

SV Elversberg creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

0.80

1.12

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

SV Elversberg

1.80

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.80

allows per match

SV Elversberg

1.12

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.42

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.42scores more

Eintracht Braunschweig-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw

77%

SV Elversberg or Eintracht Braunschweig

75%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

47%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

28%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

80%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

48%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

22%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

62%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

70%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.80 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 + SV Elversberg defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Elversberg scores more

53%

level

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

23%

SV Elversberg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Asllani

SV Elversberg · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

F. Asllani

18'

M. Damar↳ F. Asllani

21'

M. Damar↳ T. Zimmerschied

24'

Sven Köhler

32'

M. Marie← J. Baas

33'

M. Rohr← L. Pinckert

36'

Jannis Nikolaou

46'

E. Bičakčić← S. Köhler

46'

L. Szabó← R. Tachie

57'

F. Di Michele Sanchez← L. Bell Bell

69'

C. Sickinger← E. Baum

79'

M. Feil← M. Damar

79'

L. Schnellbacher← F. Asllani

79'

F. Schmahl← T. Zimmerschied

84'

F. Kaufmann← M. Rittmüller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVEintracht

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots7

8Corners1

6Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots7

8On Target0

8Off Target2

4Blocked5

15Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

632Total Passes284

547Accurate Passes202

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1