Eintracht Braunschweig 0–3 SV Elversberg

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

SV Elversberg

M. Neubauer 90+1'

F. Asllani 78', 62'

12/15/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 16Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig37%

×Draw24%

SV Elversberg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchSV Elversberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.55

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.51

SV Elversberg

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.56

creates per match

1.62

1.48

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.56

SV Elversberg

1.62

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.48

SV Elversberg

1.46

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig-0.31scores less

SV Elversberg-0.05on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

SV Elversberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

61%

Eintracht Braunschweig or SV Elversberg

76%

Draw or SV Elversberg

63%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

18%

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

78%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

44%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

19%

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

79%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

46%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

49%

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 12 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.56 + SV Elversberg defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.51

SV Elversberg attack 1.62 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

37%

level

24%

SV Elversberg scores more

39%

SV Elversberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Asllani

SV Elversberg · F

9.2

Match Events

43'

Max Marie

44'

Robert Ivanov

58'

M. Damar← L. Schnellbacher

62'

F. Asllani

65'

Muhammed Damar

67'

Carlo Sickinger

67'

L. Bell Bell← F. Di Michele Sanchez

67'

S. Polter← M. Marie

68'

C. Conteh← J. Gómez

74'

S. Köhler← R. Krauße

74'

F. Le Joncour← T. Zimmerschied

78'

80'

84'

84'

86'

86'

90'

90+1'

M. Neubauer↳ P. Stock

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EintrachtSV

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots17

6Corners5

16Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots17

2On Target7

4Off Target6

4Blocked4

9Inside Box10

1Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

390Total Passes466

296Accurate Passes389

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1