SV Darmstadt 98 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

I. Lidberg 79'

4/5/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9852%

×Draw22%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.30

SV Darmstadt 98

1.92

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.30

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.22

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.22

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.22

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.38

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.62

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.12scores less

SpVgg Greuther Fürth-0.05on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

SpVgg Greuther Fürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

74%

SV Darmstadt 98 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

78%

Draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth

48%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

29%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

85%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

57%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

30%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals

73%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals

37%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

67%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.38 · 10 matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.62 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.22 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.22 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

52%

level

22%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more

26%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Boëtius

SV Darmstadt 98 · M

7.7

Match Events

46'

Guille Bueno← M. Papela

62'

L. Marseiler← F. Hornby

74'

J. Boëtius← P. Förster

76'

R. Massimo← D. Srbeny

79'

I. Lidberg↳ J. Boëtius

84'

Nemanja Motika← S. Asta

84'

J. Mause← N. Futkeu

85'

Noah Loosli

88'

M. Maglica← I. Lidberg

88'

M. Thiede← Sergio López

90+2'

G. Jung← N. Loosli

90+2'

N. Gießelmann← M. John

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVSpVgg

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots5

6Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots5

4On Target1

7Off Target3

3Blocked1

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

436Total Passes432

368Accurate Passes351

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1