SpVgg Greuther Furth 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98

SpVgg Greuther Furth

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SV Darmstadt 98

J. Green 78'

A. Sieb 71'

S. Asta 58'

T. Raschl 50'

5/28/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 34Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth38%

×Draw24%

SV Darmstadt 9838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpVgg Greuther FurthExpected goals in this matchSV Darmstadt 98

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.57

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.58

SV Darmstadt 98

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.34

creates per match

1.48

1.67

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.34

SV Darmstadt 98

1.48

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth

1.67

SV Darmstadt 98

1.82

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.06on par

SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw

62%

SpVgg Greuther Furth or SV Darmstadt 98

76%

Draw or SV Darmstadt 98

62%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+

19%

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals

79%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals

47%

SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals

21%

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

79%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

46%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)

50%

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.34 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more

38%

level

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

38%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Asta

SpVgg Greuther Furth · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

T. Raschl← G. Jung

30'

Patric Pfeiffer

30'

Patric PfeifferCard upgrade

50'

T. Raschl

55'

Fabian Holland

58'

S. Asta↳ M. John

61'

F. Stojilković← M. Honsak

61'

C. Riedel← B. Manu

61'

T. Kempe← F. Schnellhardt

66'

A. Sieb← R. Ache

69'

Klaus Gjasula

71'

A. Sieb↳ L. Petkov

76'

Marvin Mehlem

78'

K. Bennetts← M. Mehlem

78'

J. Green↳ T. Raschl

79'

F. Torsiello← P. Tietz

83'

Afimico Pululu← L. Petkov

83'

S. Raebiger← J. Green

83'

O. Mhamdi← M. John

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpVggSV

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots2

5Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots2

7On Target0

2Off Target0

1Blocked2

6Inside Box1

4Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

632Total Passes293

546Accurate Passes198

86%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides4