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SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
N. Futkeu 90', 85', 41' (pen)
Y. Furukawa 77'
I. Lidberg 35'
4/19/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Fürth38%
×Draw24%
SV Darmstadt 9838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.58
SV Darmstadt 98
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Fürth+0.06on par
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Fürth ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw
62%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Darmstadt 98
76%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
62%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins by 2+
19%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1+ goals
79%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2+ goals
47%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3+ goals
21%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
79%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
46%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (draw refunded)
50%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.34 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SpVgg Greuther Fürth scores more
38%
level
24%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
38%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Fürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
N. FutkeuSpVgg Greuther FürthSpVgg Greuther Fürth · F
8.6

Match Events

25'
R. Petretta← F. Nurnberger
35'
I. Lidberg
41'
N. FutkeuPenalty
58'
Patric Pfeiffer
62'
N. Schmidt← K. Klefisch
62'
Y. Furukawa← K. Corredor
66'
Niklas Schmidt
71'
L. Reich← J. Dehm
75'
J. Green← D. Arifi
77'
Branimir Hrgota
77'
Y. Furukawa↳ F. Hornby
84'
J. Consbruch← A. Keller
84'
F. Higl← M. Dietz
85'
N. Futkeu
90+8'
Felix Klaus
90+5'
B. Bialek← M. Richter
90+5'
A. Vukotic← S. Lopez
90'
N. Futkeu↳ B. Hrgota

Possession

44%SpVgg

Shots

20SpVgg

Pass accuracy

50%SpVgg

Statistics

SpVggSV
Overview
44%Possession56%
20Total Shots12
3.16Expected Goals (xG)1.60
5Corners3
11Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots12
7On Target3
6Off Target6
7Blocked3
17Inside Box7
3Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
403Total Passes525
335Accurate Passes442
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.26Goals Prevented0.26
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Darmstadt 98

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on April 19, 2026.

Goals: I. Lidberg (35'), N. Futkeu (41' pen, 85', 90'), Y. Furukawa (77').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in Furth.