SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 FC Kaiserslautern

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Kaiserslautern

F. Stojilković 43', 36'

3/18/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 25Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9854%

×Draw22%

FC Kaiserslautern24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchFC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.23

SV Darmstadt 98

1.94

FC Kaiserslautern

1.23

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.26

creates per match

1.10

1.35

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.26

FC Kaiserslautern

1.10

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.35

FC Kaiserslautern

1.61

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.15scores less

FC Kaiserslautern-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

76%

SV Darmstadt 98 or FC Kaiserslautern

78%

Draw or FC Kaiserslautern

46%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

31%

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

86%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

58%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

30%

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

71%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

35%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

69%

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 9 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.26 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.10 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

54%

level

22%

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

F. Holland

SV Darmstadt 98 · M

8.0

Match Events

20'

B. Zolinski← K. Redondo

36'

F. Stojilković↳ F. Holland

39'

Marvin Mehlem

43'

F. Stojilković

45+1'

Ben Zolinski

46'

N. de Préville← T. Boyd

62'

E. Durm← H. Zuck

62'

L. Lobinger← N. de Préville

69'

K. Bennetts← B. Manu

70'

F. Ronstadt← M. Bader

70'

K. Gjasula← M. Mehlem

72'

Christoph Zimmermann

73'

Emir Karić

80'

A. Seydel← F. Stojilković

85'

D. Hanslik← P. Klement

86'

F. Torsiello← E. Karic

90+2'

Aaron Seydel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVFC

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots11

5Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target2

8Off Target6

3Blocked3

14Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

458Total Passes397

357Accurate Passes276

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1