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1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
R. Ache 45+7'
M. Ritter 15' (pen)
L. Marseiler 3'
5/11/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern48%
×Draw23%
SV Darmstadt 9829%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.88
SV Darmstadt 98
1.41

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.94
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.24scores less
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw
71%
1. FC Kaiserslautern or SV Darmstadt 98
77%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
52%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
27%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
85%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
56%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
29%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
76%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
41%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
63%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.94 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
48%
level
23%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
29%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. Ritter1. FC Kaiserslautern1. FC Kaiserslautern · M
7.5

Match Events

3'
L. Marseiler
13'
Jean ZimmerPenalty confirmed
15'
M. RitterPenalty
35'
Isac LidbergGoal cancelled
45+3'
Marlon Ritter
45+7'
Marcel Schuhen
45+7'
R. Ache↳ D. Hanslik
46'
F. Kleinhansl← M. Ritter
47'
Clemens Riedel
62'
Matej Maglica
64'
M. Thiede← K. Klefisch
64'
P. Förster← L. Marseiler
66'
F. Alidou← D. Yokota
74'
T. Breithaupt← F. Kaloč
74'
F. Ronstadt← J. Zimmer
82'
P. Klement← R. Ache
84'
T. Kempe← F. Nürnberger
87'
Kenny Prince Redondo

Possession

47%1.

Shots

171.

Pass accuracy

51%1.

Statistics

1.SV
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots14
3Corners11
8Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots14
6On Target4
6Off Target4
5Blocked6
8Inside Box8
9Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
383Total Passes425
313Accurate Passes342
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides5

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 11, 2025.

Goals: L. Marseiler (3'), M. Ritter (15' pen), R. Ache (45+7').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.