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SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
L. Marseiler 90'
K. Klefisch 45'
F. Lakenmacher 29'
F. Hornby 5' (pen)
2/7/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 21Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9854%
×Draw22%
1. FC Kaiserslautern24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Darmstadt 98
1.94
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.23

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98
2.26
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.10

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.61

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.15scores less
1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.19scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

1. FC Kaiserslautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw
76%
SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Kaiserslautern
78%
Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern
46%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
31%
1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
86%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
58%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
30%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
71%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
35%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
69%
1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 9 matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.26 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.10 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
54%
level
22%
1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
24%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. MarseilerSV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98 · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
F. HornbyPenalty
7'
Fabian Kunze
15'
Matej Maglica
29'
F. Lakenmacher↳ F. Hornby
35'
Maxwell Gyamfi
45'
K. Klefisch↳ M. Richter
46'
N. Bassette← M. Gyamfi
57'
S. Asta← F. Kunze
57'
K. Redondo← P. Joly
57'
M. Berisha← D. Hanslik
63'
A. Vukotic← P. Pfeiffer
64'
M. Papela← F. Lakenmacher
73'
N. Schmidt← H. Akiyama
73'
K. Corredor← M. Richter
87'
O. Gibs← S. Sahin
90+1'
F. Holland← F. Nurnberger
90'
L. Marseiler↳ N. Schmidt

Possession

47%SV

Shots

15SV

Pass accuracy

49%SV

Statistics

SV1.
Overview
47%Possession53%
15Total Shots16
6Corners6
8Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots16
9On Target2
2Off Target9
4Blocked5
10Inside Box11
5Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
412Total Passes460
328Accurate Passes385
80%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 4–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4-0 in 2. Bundesliga on February 7, 2026.

Goals: F. Hornby (5' pen), F. Lakenmacher (29'), K. Klefisch (45'), L. Marseiler (90').

1. FC Kaiserslautern controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in Darmstadt.