SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Eintracht Braunschweig

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Braunschweig

Sergio López 28'

L. Szabó 86'

9/14/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 5Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9854%

×Draw23%

Eintracht Braunschweig23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.09

SV Darmstadt 98

1.82

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.09

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.22

creates per match

0.80

1.38

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.22

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.80

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.38

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.42

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.12scores less

Eintracht Braunschweig-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

77%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Eintracht Braunschweig

77%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

46%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

31%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

84%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

54%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

27%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

66%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

30%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

71%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.38 · 10 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.22 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.82

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

54%

level

23%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

23%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Sergio López

SV Darmstadt 98 · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

9'

28'

45+5'

45+1'

58'

58'

M. Marie← M. Rittmüller

63'

Fraser HornbyGoal cancelled

66'

M. Papela← L. Marseiler

66'

F. Lakenmacher← I. Lidberg

72'

J. Gómez← R. Krauße

79'

C. Conteh← P. Jaeckel

79'

L. Bell Bell← F. Di Michele Sanchez

80'

M. Maglica← K. Corredor

83'

K. Gjasula← A. Müller

86'

L. Szabó↳ R. Philippe

90+7'

90+7'

90+7'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVEintracht

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots15

2Corners10

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots15

3On Target2

8Off Target8

4Blocked5

10Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

352Total Passes458

262Accurate Passes360

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards7

0Offsides1