Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
P. Tietz 90+1'
M. Honsak 82'
M. Wintzheimer 52' (pen)
2/12/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9854%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Braunschweig23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Darmstadt 98
1.82
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98
2.22
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.80

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.42

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.12scores less
Eintracht Braunschweig-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw
77%
SV Darmstadt 98 or Eintracht Braunschweig
77%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
46%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
31%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
84%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
54%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
27%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
66%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
30%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
71%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.38 · 10 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.22 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.82

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
54%
level
23%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
23%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
M. HonsakSV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98 · F
8.5

Match Events

-5'
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann
29'
Tobias Kempe
39'
Saulo Decarli
46'
F. Stojilković← M. Warming
49'
Thomas Isherwood
51'
Jan Hendrik MarxPenalty confirmed
52'
Christoph Zimmermann
52'
M. WintzheimerPenalty
64'
H. Kuruçay← L. Gechter
68'
K. Bennetts← T. Isherwood
68'
F. Schnellhardt← T. Kempe
68'
F. Ronstadt← E. Karic
70'
Tarsis Bonga
73'
L. Lauberbach← T. Bonga
73'
J. Nikolaou← K. Endo
82'
M. Honsak↳ F. Ronstadt
83'
Nathan De Medina
86'
Jan Hendrik MarxPenalty cancelled
89'
I. Pherai← M. Wintzheimer
90+10'
Filip Stojilković
90+6'
Phillip Tietz
90+3'
Phillip TietzGoal confirmed
90+11'
Anton Donkor
90+8'
Nathan De Medina
90+4'
Immanuel Pherai
90+8'
Nathan De Medina
90+5'
C. Riedel← M. Mehlem
90'
R. Krauße← F. Kaufmann
90+1'
P. Tietz↳ M. Honsak

Possession

65%SV

Shots

25SV

Pass accuracy

60%SV

Statistics

SVEintracht
Overview
65%Possession35%
25Total Shots9
8Corners1
13Fouls21
Shots
25Total Shots9
6On Target3
12Off Target3
7Blocked3
14Inside Box4
11Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
450Total Passes256
330Accurate Passes123
73%Pass Accuracy48%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls21
5Yellow Cards7
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Braunschweig

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Wintzheimer (52' pen), M. Honsak (82'), P. Tietz (90+1').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (65%) and registered 25 shots to 9.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Darmstadt.