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Sutherland Sharks vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
J. Tresoglavic 41'
3/23/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 7Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sutherland Sharks44%
×Draw25%
Central Coast II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutherland Sharks
1.58
Central Coast II
1.29

Sutherland Sharks creates 22% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.59
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw
69%
Sutherland Sharks or Central Coast II
75%
Draw or Central Coast II
56%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
22%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
79%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
47%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
21%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
72%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
37%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
59%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more
44%
level
25%
Central Coast II scores more
31%

Sutherland Sharks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sutherland Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
J. Tresoglavic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutherland Sharks vs Central Coast II

Sutherland Sharks beat Central Coast II 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on March 23, 2025.

Goals: J. Tresoglavic (41').

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.