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Central Coast II vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

Central Coast II
Central Coast II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
7/6/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 22Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II39%
×Draw24%
Sutherland Sharks38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Coast II
1.59
Sutherland Sharks
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 91 away

creates per match

Central Coast II
1.53
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

Central Coast II
1.83
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw
62%
Central Coast II or Sutherland Sharks
76%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
61%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+
19%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals
80%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
47%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
21%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
79%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
46%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)
51%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Coast II scores more
39%
level
24%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
38%

Central Coast II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Central Coast II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Central Coast II 0–0 Sutherland Sharks

Central Coast II and Sutherland Sharks drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on July 6, 2025.

The match was played at Pluim Park in Lisarow.