Sutherland Sharks 0–0 Central Coast II

Sutherland Sharks

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast II

6/2/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 18Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sutherland Sharks44%

×Draw25%

Central Coast II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutherland SharksExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.29

Sutherland Sharks

1.58

Central Coast II

1.29

Sutherland Sharks creates 22% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 46 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.59

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks

1.00

Central Coast II

1.00

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks

1.59

Central Coast II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Central Coast II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw

69%

Sutherland Sharks or Central Coast II

75%

Draw or Central Coast II

56%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+

22%

Central Coast II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals

79%

Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals

47%

Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals

21%

Central Coast II 1+ goals

72%

Central Coast II 2+ goals

37%

Central Coast II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)

59%

Central Coast II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more

44%

level

25%

Central Coast II scores more

31%

Sutherland Sharks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sutherland Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

H. Lamberton← J. Photi

63'

M. Arambasic← G. Daniel

63'

M. Kasalovic← Y. Sunmola

64'

N. Sullivan← J. Busch

81'

J. Roberts← L. Khoury

90+1'

B. Brandtman← A. Hammond

90+1'

G. Di Pizio← L. Bayliss

Sutherland

Central

30

24

3

4

12

▼

Sunmola

6

Bayliss

8

▼

Bayliss

16

Arnold

15

Segreto

7

▼

Hammond

18

▼

1

4

6

15

14

2

91

▼

Busch

21

Sauer

33

▼

Khoury

11

Kamada

5

▼

Photi

Manager: N. Dimovski

54'▲H. Lamberton←▼J. Photi

64'▲N. Sullivan←▼J. Busch

81'▲J. Roberts←▼L. Khoury

Sutherland Sharks substitutes

9Lamberton10Sullivan3Roberts8Brown22Cremen-Cowan25Randazzo

Manager: Abbas Saad

63'▲M. Arambasic←▼G. Daniel

63'▲M. Kasalovic←▼Y. Sunmola

90+1'▲B. Brandtman←▼A. Hammond

90+1'▲G. Di Pizio←▼L. Bayliss

Central Coast II substitutes

14Arambasic21Kasalovic11Brandtman9Pizio39Susovic20Parkes