Sunderland 1–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Utd

É. Michut 30'

T. Doyle 61'

J. McAtee 45+1'

3/15/2023

Championship · Round 37Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sunderland40%

×Draw28%

Sheffield Utd32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.07

Sunderland

1.24

Sheffield Utd

1.07

Sunderland creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

0.88

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Sunderland

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Sunderland

0.88

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Sunderland-0.06on par

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

68%

Sunderland or Sheffield Utd

72%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

60%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

18%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

71%

Sunderland 2+ goals

35%

Sunderland 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

66%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

29%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

56%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.29 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Sunderland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sunderland scores more

40%

level

28%

Sheffield Utd scores more

32%

Sunderland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

É. Michut

Sunderland · M

7.2

Match Events

20'

Jack Robinson

24'

Max Lowe

27'

Trai Hume

30'

É. Michut↳ A. Ba

35'

Tommy Doyle

45+1'

J. McAtee↳ G. Baldock

55'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

61'

T. Doyle

70'

O. McBurnie← D. Jebbison

71'

Édouard Michut

72'

A. Pritchard← J. Gelhardt

72'

I. Lihadji← A. Ba

72'

78'

79'

80'

87'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandSheffield

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots11

4Corners8

16Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target4

3Off Target3

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

1Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

381Total Passes307

296Accurate Passes200

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Championship: Sunderland 1–2 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Sunderland 2-1 in Championship on March 15, 2023.

Goals: É. Michut (30'), J. McAtee (45+1'), T. Doyle (61').

Sunderland controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.

Sunderland vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sunderland 1–2 Sheffield Utd