Sheffield Utd 1–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

T. Davies 83'

11/29/2024

Championship · Round 18Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Sheffield Utd48%

×Draw26%

Sunderland27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Sheffield Utd

1.52

Sunderland

1.07

Sheffield Utd creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 40 away

1.73

creates per match

1.14

1.01

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.73

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.01

Sunderland

1.32

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

73%

Sheffield Utd or Sunderland

74%

Draw or Sunderland

52%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

24%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

45%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

20%

Sunderland 1+ goals

66%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

64%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

48%

level

26%

Sunderland scores more

27%

Sheffield Utd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

T. Watson

Sunderland · M

7.9

Match Events

28'

Jack Robinson

29'

Patrick RobertsMissed penalty

35'

40'

45+2'

45+2'

46'

65'

75'

76'

T. Davies← J. Rak-Sakyi

77'

R. Oné← T. Campbell

77'

Eliezer Mayenda← P. Roberts

77'

A. Alese← T. Watson

83'

T. Davies

84'

A. Aouchiche← C. Rigg

84'

A. Connolly← W. Isidor

87'

R. Norrington-Davies← H. Burrows

90+5'

Tom Davies

90+1'

Ryan One

90+3'

Daniel Ballard

90+3'

S. McCallum← G. Hamer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldSunderland

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots16

0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.69

8Corners8

12Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target2

4Off Target6

6Blocked8

8Inside Box14

6Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

444Total Passes432

381Accurate Passes380

86%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.70Goals Prevented-0.70

Discipline

12Fouls8

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Championship: Sheffield Utd 1–0 Sunderland

Sheffield Utd beat Sunderland 1-0 in Championship on November 29, 2024.

Goals: T. Davies (83').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 16.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sheffield Utd 1–0 Sunderland