Sheffield Utd 1–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

T. Campbell 25'

T. Watson 90+5'

Eliezer Mayenda 76'

5/24/2025

Championship · Promotion Play-offs - FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Sheffield Utd48%

×Draw26%

Sunderland27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.07

Sheffield Utd

1.52

Sunderland

1.07

Sheffield Utd creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 40 away

1.73

creates per match

1.14

1.01

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.73

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.01

Sunderland

1.32

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

73%

Sheffield Utd or Sunderland

74%

Draw or Sunderland

52%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

24%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

45%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

20%

Sunderland 1+ goals

66%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

64%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

48%

level

26%

Sunderland scores more

27%

Sheffield Utd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Ballard

Sunderland · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

C. Mepham← L. ONien

25'

T. Campbell↳ G. Hamer

36'

Harrison BurrowsGoal cancelled

58'

P. Roberts← C. Rigg

59'

Rhian Brewster

65'

A. Brooks← R. Brewster

65'

C. O'Hare← T. Campbell

68'

Romaine Mundle

72'

B. Brereton← G. Hamer

73'

W. Isidor← R. Mundle

73'

T. Watson← D. Neil

76'

Eliezer Mayenda↳ P. Roberts

85'

Ben Brereton Díaz

90+8'

Dennis Cirkin

90+6'

Tom Watson

90'

T. Cannon← B. Brereton

90+7'

F. Seriki← A. Ahmedhodžić

90'

T. Davies← S. Peck

90+8'

L. Hjelde← Eliezer Mayenda

90+5'

T. Watson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldSunderland

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots9

1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.71

1Corners6

9Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target3

0Off Target3

3Blocked3

7Inside Box5

0Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

353Total Passes465

259Accurate Passes390

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.71Goals Prevented0.71

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2