Sunderland 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

J. Bellingham 72'

D. Ballard 47'

A. Ben Slimane 21'

12/21/2024

Championship · Round 22Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sunderland41%

×Draw29%

Norwich30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.99

Sunderland

1.20

Norwich

0.99

Sunderland creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 32 away

1.10

creates per match

1.32

0.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sunderland

1.10

Norwich

1.32

allows per match

Sunderland

0.65

Norwich

1.29

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Sunderland+0.33scores more

Norwich+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

70%

Sunderland or Norwich

71%

Draw or Norwich

59%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

18%

Norwich wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

70%

Sunderland 2+ goals

34%

Sunderland 3+ goals

12%

Norwich 1+ goals

63%

Norwich 2+ goals

26%

Norwich 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

57%

Norwich (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.65 · 7 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.10 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Norwich attack 1.32 + Sunderland defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland scores more

41%

level

29%

Norwich scores more

30%

Sunderland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Bellingham

Sunderland · M

7.5

Match Events

21'

39'

42'

42'

47'

D. Ballard↳ Eliezer Mayenda

49'

53'

56'

57'

60'

67'

T. Hume← L. ONien

68'

Daniel Ballard

69'

O. Schwartau← O. Hernández

70'

José Córdoba

70'

José Córdoba

72'

J. Bellingham↳ D. Cirkin

73'

B. Chrisene← E. Marcondes

73'

J. Sørensen← A. Crnac

82'

K. Fisher← A. Ben Slimane

82'

A. Barnes← S. Duffy

84'

A. Aouchiche← W. Isidor

85'

A. Alese← D. Cirkin

88'

L. Hjelde← D. Ballard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandNorwich

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots7

0.61Expected Goals (xG)0.62

4Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target4

2Off Target3

1Blocked0

6Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

414Total Passes404

329Accurate Passes308

79%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.96Goals Prevented-0.96

Discipline

15Fouls14

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Norwich

Sunderland beat Norwich 2-1 in Championship on December 21, 2024.

Goals: A. Ben Slimane (21'), D. Ballard (47'), J. Bellingham (72').

Sunderland controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.

Sunderland vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Norwich