Sunderland 3–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Norwich

J. Clarke 80' (pen)

D. Neil 45'

T. Hume 37'

Hwang Ui-Jo 23'

10/28/2023

Championship · Round 14Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sunderland42%

×Draw28%

Norwich30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Sunderland

1.25

Norwich

1.00

Sunderland creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

1.18

creates per match

1.35

0.65

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sunderland

1.18

Norwich

1.35

allows per match

Sunderland

0.65

Norwich

1.31

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Sunderland+0.15scores more

Norwich+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

70%

Sunderland or Norwich

72%

Draw or Norwich

58%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

19%

Norwich wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

71%

Sunderland 2+ goals

36%

Sunderland 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

63%

Norwich 2+ goals

26%

Norwich 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

59%

Norwich (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 6 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.31 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.18 + Norwich defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Norwich attack 1.35 + Sunderland defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sunderland scores more

42%

level

28%

Norwich scores more

30%

Sunderland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Clarke

Sunderland · M

10.0

Match Events

11'

Christian Fassnacht

23'

Hwang Ui-Jo↳ K. Fisher

24'

37'

41'

45'

46'

61'

62'

62'

O. Hernández← C. Fassnacht

71'

A. Pritchard← J. Bellingham

71'

Luís Semedo← N. Rusyn

72'

A. Ba← P. Roberts

74'

A. Idah← B. Gibson

74'

J. Stacey← K. Fisher

77'

C. Rigg← P. Ekwah

77'

D. Cirkin← N. Huggins

78'

Kenny McLean

80'

J. ClarkePenalty

89'

Alex Pritchard

90+5'

Luís Semedo

90+5'

Adam Idah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandNorwich

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots9

2.48Expected Goals (xG)0.81

7Corners1

12Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots9

8On Target2

3Off Target4

6Blocked3

10Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

576Total Passes340

516Accurate Passes272

90%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Championship: Sunderland 3–1 Norwich

Sunderland beat Norwich 3-1 in Championship on October 28, 2023.

Goals: Hwang Ui-Jo (23'), T. Hume (37'), D. Neil (45'), J. Clarke (80' pen).

Sunderland controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.

Sunderland vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sunderland 3–1 Norwich