Norwich 0–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Norwich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sunderland

A. Ba 15'

3/12/2023

Championship · Round 36Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Norwich41%

×Draw27%

Sunderland32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Norwich

1.33

Sunderland

1.16

Norwich creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 8 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

1.40

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Norwich

1.47

Sunderland

0.92

allows per match

Norwich

1.40

Sunderland

1.19

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Norwich+0.05on par

Sunderland+0.08on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

68%

Norwich or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

59%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

19%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

74%

Norwich 2+ goals

38%

Norwich 3+ goals

15%

Sunderland 1+ goals

69%

Sunderland 2+ goals

32%

Sunderland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

56%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 29 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.47 + Sunderland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sunderland attack 0.92 + Norwich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Norwich scores more

41%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

32%

Norwich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

D. Giannoulis

Norwich · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

32'

46'

50'

56'

J. Sørensen← M. Aarons

56'

Marquinhos← O. Hernández

62'

Daniel Neil

64'

Trai Hume

67'

L. Gooch← A. Ba

67'

P. Ekwah← É. Michut

71'

Danny Batth

73'

C. Tzolis← M. Núñez

79'

I. Lihadji← J. Gelhardt

85'

Lynden Gooch

90+2'

Pierre Ekwah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichSunderland

Overview

72%Possession28%

17Total Shots11

8Corners3

13Fouls21

Shots

17Total Shots11

5On Target5

6Off Target3

6Blocked3

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

72%Possession28%

533Total Passes207

449Accurate Passes135

84%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Norwich vs Sunderland

Sunderland beat Norwich 1-0 in Championship on March 12, 2023.

Goals: A. Ba (15').

Norwich controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Sunderland — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Norwich vs Sunderland