Sunderland 0–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

J. Sargent 76'

8/27/2022

Championship · Round 6Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sunderland44%

×Draw27%

Norwich29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Sunderland

1.38

Norwich

1.05

Sunderland creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 60 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

0.88

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Sunderland

1.29

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Sunderland

0.88

Norwich

1.47

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Sunderland-0.06on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

71%

Sunderland or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

56%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

21%

Norwich wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

75%

Sunderland 2+ goals

40%

Sunderland 3+ goals

16%

Norwich 1+ goals

65%

Norwich 2+ goals

28%

Norwich 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

61%

Norwich (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.29 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Norwich attack 1.22 + Sunderland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sunderland scores more

44%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

29%

Sunderland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Krul

Norwich · G

8.2

Match Events

19'

25'

35'

60'

60'

T. Cantwell← O. Hernández

60'

T. Pukki← D. Sinani

76'

J. Sargent↳ A. Ramsey

77'

E. Embleton← A. Pritchard

87'

P. Roberts← C. Evans

90+2'

Tim Krul

90+1'

Josh Sargent

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandNorwich

Overview

45%Possession55%

20Total Shots12

8Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots12

6On Target3

6Off Target5

8Blocked4

13Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

312Total Passes391

212Accurate Passes292

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1