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Sunderland vs Luton — Championship 2018

Sunderland
Sunderlandadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Luton
Luton
T. Hume 63'
A. Diallo 39'
E. Adebayo 11'
5/13/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sunderland53%
×Draw26%
Luton21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.48
Luton
0.82

Sunderland creates 80% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.30
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Sunderland
0.80
Luton
1.67

finishing

Sunderland-0.01on par
Luton-0.09on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
79%
Sunderland or Luton
74%
Draw or Luton
47%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
27%
Luton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
77%
Sunderland 2+ goals
43%
Sunderland 3+ goals
19%
Luton 1+ goals
56%
Luton 2+ goals
20%
Luton 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
72%
Luton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.80 · 24 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Luton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Luton attack 0.85 + Sunderland defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sunderland scores more
53%
level
26%
Luton scores more
21%

Sunderland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
T. HumeSunderlandSunderland · D
7.5

Match Events

11'
E. Adebayo
16'
Dan Neil
29'
Marvelous Nakamba
30'
Luke O'Nien
38'
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu
39'
A. Diallo↳ A. Pritchard
63'
T. Hume↳ J. Clarke
72'
F. Onyedinma← C. Drameh
73'
Alfie Doughty
77'
Jordan Clark
79'
L. Berry← J. Clark
81'
N. Huggins← P. Roberts
84'
Amad Diallo
88'
R. Burke← A. Doughty
90+1'
A. Ba← A. Pritchard

Possession

59%Sunderland

Shots

13Sunderland

Pass accuracy

52%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandLuton
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots11
6Corners2
9Fouls20
Shots
13Total Shots11
4On Target5
5Off Target2
4Blocked4
6Inside Box7
7Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
437Total Passes295
337Accurate Passes213
77%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls20
3Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Luton

Sunderland beat Luton 2-1 in Championship on May 13, 2023.

Goals: E. Adebayo (11'), A. Diallo (39'), T. Hume (63').

Sunderland controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.