Luton 1–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

E. Adebayo 63'

R. Mundle 66'

C. Rigg 55'

10/23/2024

Championship · Round 11Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Luton44%

×Draw28%

Sunderland28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.99

Luton

1.33

Sunderland

0.99

Luton creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 40 away

1.34

creates per match

1.14

0.84

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Luton

1.34

Sunderland

1.14

allows per match

Luton

0.84

Sunderland

1.32

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Luton-0.34scores less

Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

72%

Luton or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

56%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

74%

Luton 2+ goals

38%

Luton 3+ goals

15%

Sunderland 1+ goals

63%

Sunderland 2+ goals

26%

Sunderland 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

61%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.84 · 16 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.34 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Luton defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luton scores more

44%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

28%

Luton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

A. Doughty

Luton · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Chris Rigg

55'

C. Rigg

63'

E. Adebayo↳ C. Morris

66'

R. Mundle↳ D. Neil

67'

A. Connolly← W. Isidor

70'

70'

73'

81'

81'

P. Roberts← R. Mundle

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+1'

J. Taylor← D. Hashioka

90+3'

L. Hjelde← C. Rigg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonSunderland

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots8

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.70

10Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots8

4On Target5

7Off Target0

8Blocked3

16Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

408Total Passes344

302Accurate Passes246

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

1.27Goals Prevented1.27

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2