Sunderland 1–1 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

A. Diallo 86' (pen)

A. Doughty 51'

3/18/2023

Championship · Round 38Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Sunderland52%

×Draw27%

Luton21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.81

Sunderland

1.44

Luton

0.81

Sunderland creates 78% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.28

creates per match

0.85

0.78

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sunderland

1.28

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Sunderland

0.78

Luton

1.59

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Sunderland-0.04on par

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

79%

Sunderland or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

48%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

26%

Luton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

76%

Sunderland 2+ goals

42%

Sunderland 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

56%

Luton 2+ goals

19%

Luton 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

71%

Luton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.28 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Luton attack 0.85 + Sunderland defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sunderland scores more

52%

level

27%

Luton scores more

21%

Sunderland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Diallo

Sunderland · F

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Cauley Woodrow

36'

Tom Lockyer

51'

A. Doughty↳ C. Drameh

55'

A. Diallo← A. Ba

56'

J. Clark← L. Berry

72'

L. Gooch← É. Michut

72'

A. Pritchard← T. Hume

72'

P. Ekwah← J. Gelhardt

72'

J. Bennette← D. Neil

75'

F. Onyedinma← A. Doughty

81'

Elijah Adebayo

83'

C. Woodrow← E. Adebayo

86'

A. DialloPenalty

90+1'

Carlton Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandLuton

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots7

6Corners2

7Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target3

3Off Target2

4Blocked2

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

458Total Passes325

360Accurate Passes222

79%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0