Sunderland 1–1 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Luton

C. Maguire 16'

J. Collins 67' (pen)

1/12/2019

League One · Round 28Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sunderland45%

×Draw25%

Luton30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.19

Sunderland

1.53

Luton

1.19

Sunderland creates 29% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 44 away

1.83

creates per match

1.45

0.93

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Luton

1.45

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Luton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

70%

Sunderland or Luton

75%

Draw or Luton

55%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

23%

Luton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

78%

Sunderland 2+ goals

45%

Sunderland 3+ goals

20%

Luton 1+ goals

70%

Luton 2+ goals

33%

Luton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

60%

Luton (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Luton attack 1.45 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sunderland scores more

45%

level

25%

Luton scores more

30%

Sunderland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

45'

45'

62'

67'

J. CollinsPenalty

70'

Danny Hylton

75'

Reece James

79'

B. Mbunga-Kimpioka← L. Gooch

79'

L. Berry← E. Lee

80'

87'

90'

90'

Sunderland

Luton

36

5

6

4

11

17

7

2

9

19

⚽

Collins

10

▼

1

12

15

16

▼

19

27

8

13

11

▼

Gooch

7

⚽

Maguire

9

Wyke

Manager: J. Ross

79'▲B. Mbunga-Kimpioka←▼L. Gooch

87'▲B. Oviedo←▼R. James

Sunderland substitutes

48Mbunga-Kimpioka3Oviedo2Matthews5Öztürk25Ruiter37Mumba30Dunne

Manager: M. Harford

79'▲L. Berry←▼E. Lee

Luton substitutes

8Berry24Thorne3Potts25LuaLua28Jones40Isted44Sheehan

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Luton

Sunderland and Luton drew 1-1 in League One on January 12, 2019.

Goals: C. Maguire (16'), J. Collins (67' pen).

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.

Sunderland vs Luton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Luton