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Sunderland vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
C. McFadzean 40'
C. Morton 63'
3/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 37Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland47%
×Draw26%
Lincoln27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.52
Lincoln
1.09

Sunderland creates 39% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.83
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Sunderland
0.93
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
73%
Sunderland or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
53%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
24%
Lincoln wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
78%
Sunderland 2+ goals
45%
Sunderland 3+ goals
20%
Lincoln 1+ goals
66%
Lincoln 2+ goals
30%
Lincoln 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
63%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sunderland scores more
47%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
27%

Sunderland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
A. McGeadySunderlandSunderland · F
7.5

Match Events

34'
Charlie Wyke
40'
C. McFadzean↳ M. Power
42'
Max Power
63'
C. Morton↳ R. Poole
64'
J. Scowen← C. Winchester
71'
R. Stewart← G. Leadbitter
74'
A. Scully← B. Johnson
77'
Liam Bridcutt
77'
C. Maguire← L. Gooch
87'
Conor McLaughlin

Possession

58%Sunderland

Shots

13Sunderland

Pass accuracy

53%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandLincoln
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots10
7Corners5
20Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots10
6On Target4
3Off Target2
4Blocked4
6Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
432Total Passes300
325Accurate Passes202
75%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Lincoln

Sunderland and Lincoln drew 1-1 in League One on March 20, 2021.

Goals: C. McFadzean (40'), C. Morton (63').

Sunderland controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.