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Lincoln vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincolnadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
B. Johnson 77'
T. Hopper 51'
5/19/2021League OneLeague One · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsLNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lincoln40%
×Draw27%
Sunderland33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.29
Sunderland
1.15

Lincoln creates 12% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 86 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Sunderland
1.30

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
67%
Lincoln or Sunderland
73%
Draw or Sunderland
60%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
18%
Sunderland wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
72%
Lincoln 2+ goals
37%
Lincoln 3+ goals
14%
Sunderland 1+ goals
68%
Sunderland 2+ goals
32%
Sunderland 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
55%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more
40%
level
27%
Sunderland scores more
33%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
Aiden McGeadySunderlandSunderland · M
7.9

Match Events

11'
D. Hume← C. McFadzean
15'
A. Jackson← L. Montsma
51'
T. Hopper↳ L. Bridcutt
61'
L. O'Nien
69'
J. Jones← R. Stewart
69'
M. Power← G. Leadbitter
72'
L. Bridcutt
77'
B. Johnson
85'
C. McGrandles← C. McGrandles
86'
J. Grant
90'
T. Flanagan← J. Diamond
90+5'
B. Johnson← H. Anderson

Possession

40%Lincoln

Shots

14Lincoln

Pass accuracy

46%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnSunderland
Overview
40%Possession60%
14Total Shots18
5Corners5
18Fouls22
Shots
14Total Shots18
5On Target3
7Off Target8
2Blocked7
8Inside Box11
6Outside Box7
Passing
40%Possession60%
288Total Passes416
193Accurate Passes334
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls22
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 2–0 Sunderland

Lincoln beat Sunderland 2-0 in League One on May 19, 2021.

Goals: T. Hopper (51'), B. Johnson (77').

Sunderland controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.