Lincoln 0–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

3/19/2022

League One · Round 39LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lincoln40%

×Draw27%

Sunderland33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Lincoln

1.29

Sunderland

1.15

Lincoln creates 12% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 86 away

1.49

creates per match

1.30

0.99

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

67%

Lincoln or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

60%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

18%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

72%

Lincoln 2+ goals

37%

Lincoln 3+ goals

14%

Sunderland 1+ goals

68%

Sunderland 2+ goals

32%

Sunderland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

55%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more

40%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

33%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Wright

Lincoln · G

7.9

Match Events

39'

Corry Evans

50'

Joe Walsh

66'

M. Whittaker← J. Walsh

74'

J. Defoe← D. Neil

74'

L. Dajaku← J. Clarke

80'

L. Cullen← J. Marquis

85'

C. Doyle← L. Gooch

87'

Conor McGrandles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnSunderland

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots16

7Corners9

15Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots16

2On Target4

3Off Target9

3Blocked3

4Inside Box9

4Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

326Total Passes407

206Accurate Passes300

63%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1