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Sunderland vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
L. Gooch 29'
M. Bostwick 23' (OG)
T. Flanagan 19'
T. Walker 66'
1/4/2020League OneLeague One · Round 26Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland47%
×Draw26%
Lincoln27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.52
Lincoln
1.09

Sunderland creates 39% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.83
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Sunderland
0.93
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
73%
Sunderland or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
53%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
24%
Lincoln wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
78%
Sunderland 2+ goals
45%
Sunderland 3+ goals
20%
Lincoln 1+ goals
66%
Lincoln 2+ goals
30%
Lincoln 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
63%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sunderland scores more
47%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
27%

Sunderland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. GoochSunderlandSunderland · F
8.3

Match Events

19'
T. Flanagan↳ C. Maguire
23'
M. BostwickOwn goal
29'
L. Gooch↳ J. McLaughlin
38'
C. Bolger← M. Bostwick
46'
J. Akinde← J. Payne
60'
Jake Hesketh
64'
D. Watmore← C. Maguire
66'
T. Walker↳ H. Anderson
79'
Z. Elbouzedi← J. Hesketh
88'
Luke O'Nien
90'
G. Leadbitter← L. Gooch

Possession

51%Sunderland

Shots

14Sunderland

Pass accuracy

51%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandLincoln
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots8
4Corners5
14Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots8
5On Target2
9Off Target1
0Blocked5
10Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
457Total Passes430
356Accurate Passes324
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

League One: Sunderland 3–1 Lincoln

Sunderland beat Lincoln 3-1 in League One on January 4, 2020.

Goals: T. Flanagan (19'), M. Bostwick (23' o.g.), L. Gooch (29'), T. Walker (66').

Sunderland controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.