Sunderland 2–0 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Sunderland

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Derby

W. Isidor 55'

J. Bellingham 40'

10/1/2024

Championship · Round 8Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sunderland46%

×Draw28%

Derby26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.91

Sunderland

1.31

Derby

0.91

Sunderland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 45 away

1.30

creates per match

1.01

0.80

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sunderland

1.30

Derby

1.01

allows per match

Sunderland

0.80

Derby

1.32

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Sunderland-0.01on par

Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

74%

Sunderland or Derby

72%

Draw or Derby

54%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

21%

Derby wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

73%

Sunderland 2+ goals

38%

Sunderland 3+ goals

14%

Derby 1+ goals

60%

Derby 2+ goals

23%

Derby 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

64%

Derby (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.80 · 24 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 1.01 + Sunderland defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sunderland scores more

46%

level

28%

Derby scores more

26%

Sunderland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Patterson

Sunderland · G

8.0

Match Events

25'

36'

40'

55'

59'

65'

C. Forsyth← T. Chirewa

66'

K. Jackson← M. Harness

66'

C. Blackett-Taylor← J. Yates

66'

N. Mendez-Laing← B. Osborn

74'

I. Poveda← P. Roberts

74'

A. Browne← C. Rigg

75'

R. Nyambe← N. Phillips

85'

N. Rusyn← W. Isidor

85'

T. Watson← I. Poveda

89'

Kenzo Goudmijn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandDerby

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots13

1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.95

1Corners8

7Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target3

2Blocked5

8Inside Box12

1Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

363Total Passes331

301Accurate Passes252

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

-0.77Goals Prevented-0.77

Discipline

7Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0