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Sunderland vs Derby — Championship 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Derby
Derby
L. Grabban 42' (pen)
B. Johnson 11'
8/4/2017ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Sunderland46%
×Draw28%
Derby26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.30
Derby
0.90

Sunderland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.28
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Sunderland
0.78
Derby
1.32

finishing

Sunderland-0.04on par
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
74%
Sunderland or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
54%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
21%
Derby wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
73%
Sunderland 2+ goals
37%
Sunderland 3+ goals
14%
Derby 1+ goals
59%
Derby 2+ goals
23%
Derby 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
64%
Derby (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 25 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.28 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

Derby attack 1.01 + Sunderland defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sunderland scores more
46%
level
28%
Derby scores more
26%

Sunderland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. GrabbanSunderlandSunderland · F
7.8

Match Events

11'
B. Johnson
42'
L. GrabbanPenalty
66'
M. Vydra← A. Weimann
78'
D. Nugent← C. Martin
89'
James Vaughan
90'
C. Bryson← J. Russell

Possession

46%Sunderland

Shots

20Sunderland

Pass accuracy

48%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandDerby
Overview
46%Possession54%
20Total Shots11
6Corners7
12Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots11
4On Target4
11Off Target5
5Blocked2
14Inside Box4
6Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
310Total Passes378
199Accurate Passes263
64%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Derby

Sunderland and Derby drew 1-1 in Championship on August 4, 2017.

Goals: B. Johnson (11'), L. Grabban (42' pen).

Derby controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.