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Derby vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sunderland
Sunderland
Eliezer Mayenda 28'
1/21/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Derby41%
×Draw28%
Sunderland31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.27
Sunderland
1.07

Derby creates 19% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 40 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Sunderland
1.14

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Sunderland
1.32

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Sunderland-0.01on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
69%
Derby or Sunderland
72%
Draw or Sunderland
59%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
18%
Sunderland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
14%
Sunderland 1+ goals
66%
Sunderland 2+ goals
29%
Sunderland 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
57%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Sunderland defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sunderland attack 1.14 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derby scores more
41%
level
28%
Sunderland scores more
31%

Derby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
T. HumeSunderlandSunderland · D
8.0

Match Events

28'
Eliezer Mayenda
33'
Jobe Bellingham
50'
Marcus Harness
58'
B. Osborn← L. Thompson
58'
C. Blackett-Taylor← N. Mendez-Laing
58'
L. Salvesen← K. Jackson
72'
D. Brown← J. Yates
72'
T. Barkhuizen← K. Wilson
74'
D. Ballard← D. Cirkin
74'
P. Roberts← Eliezer Mayenda
86'
S. Abdul Samed← C. Rigg
89'
L. Hjelde← E. Le Fée

Possession

50%Derby

Shots

9Derby

Pass accuracy

50%Derby

Statistics

DerbySunderland
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots8
0.52Expected Goals (xG)0.93
8Corners4
9Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target3
4Off Target2
2Blocked3
9Inside Box6
0Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
342Total Passes351
265Accurate Passes269
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
1.04Goals Prevented1.04
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Derby vs Sunderland

Sunderland beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on January 21, 2025.

Goals: Eliezer Mayenda (28').

Derby controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.