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Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC — League #296 2026

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
2/19/2023League #296League #296 · Round 20Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sukhothai FC46%
×Draw26%
Lampang FC29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
1.50
Lampang FC
1.13

Sukhothai FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
1.50
Lampang FC
0.75

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.50
Lampang FC
1.50

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
71%
Sukhothai FC or Lampang FC
74%
Draw or Lampang FC
54%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
23%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
78%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
44%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
19%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
68%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
31%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
62%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 1.50 + Lampang FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lampang FC attack 0.75 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
46%
level
26%
Lampang FC scores more
29%

Sukhothai FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #296: Sukhothai FC 1–1 Lampang FC

Sukhothai FC and Lampang FC drew 1-1 in League #296 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.