Lampang FC 0–1 Sukhothai FC: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sukhothai FC

9/18/2022

League #296 · Round 6Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lampang FC8%

×Draw23%

Sukhothai FC69%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchSukhothai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.38

1.63

Lampang FC

0.38

Sukhothai FC

1.63

Sukhothai FC creates 329% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.00

creates per match

0.75

2.50

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Lampang FC

0.00

Sukhothai FC

0.75

allows per match

Lampang FC

2.50

Sukhothai FC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Sukhothai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–122%

0–218%

0–310%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

31%

Lampang FC or Sukhothai FC

77%

Draw or Sukhothai FC

92%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

1%

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

32%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

6%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

1%

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

80%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

48%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

11%

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 0.00 + Sukhothai FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 + Lampang FC defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lampang FC scores more

8%

level

23%

Sukhothai FC scores more

69%

Sukhothai FC at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff