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Sukhothai FC vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
3/12/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 27Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC57%
×Draw21%
Lampang FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
2.15
Lampang FC
1.27

Sukhothai FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
2.76
Lampang FC
1.41

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.12
Lampang FC
1.53

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
78%
Sukhothai FC or Lampang FC
79%
Draw or Lampang FC
43%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
35%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
88%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
63%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
36%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
72%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
36%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
72%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.53 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Lampang FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lampang FC attack 1.41 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
57%
level
21%
Lampang FC scores more
22%

Sukhothai FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Sukhothai FC 2–1 Lampang FC

Sukhothai FC beat Lampang FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.