Sudtirol 0–3 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Mantova

D. Wieser 83'

T. Marras 41'

S. Trimboli 35'

4/25/2026

Serie B · Round 36Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sudtirol45%

×Draw27%

Mantova29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Sudtirol

1.42

Mantova

1.08

Sudtirol creates 31% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Mantova

1.05

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Mantova

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Mantova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

71%

Sudtirol or Mantova

73%

Draw or Mantova

55%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

22%

Mantova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

76%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

41%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

17%

Mantova 1+ goals

66%

Mantova 2+ goals

29%

Mantova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

61%

Mantova (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Mantova defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mantova attack 1.05 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sudtirol scores more

45%

level

27%

Mantova scores more

29%

Sudtirol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

S. Molina

Sudtirol · M

7.9

Match Events

35'

S. Trimboli↳ F. Benaissa-Yahia

41'

Andrea Masiello

41'

T. Marras↳ A. Castellini

46'

S. Merkaj← R. Tonin

46'

E. Pecorino← R. Odogwu

56'

M. R. Frigerio← J. Martini

56'

H. El Kaouakibi← A. Masiello

63'

C. Falletti← F. Ruocco

63'

N. Radaelli← F. Benaissa-Yahia

70'

Silvio Merkaj

72'

D. Crnigoj← F. Tait

72'

D. Wieser← R. Kouda

72'

F. Paoletti← T. Marras

82'

N. Buso← L. Mancuso

83'

D. Wieser

84'

David Wieser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolMantova

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots11

0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.81

2Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots11

0On Target5

7Off Target4

2Blocked2

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

334Total Passes525

237Accurate Passes425

71%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Serie B: Sudtirol 0–3 Mantova

Mantova beat Sudtirol 3-0 in Serie B on April 25, 2026.

Goals: S. Trimboli (35'), T. Marras (41'), D. Wieser (83').

Mantova controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bolzano.

Sudtirol vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sudtirol 0–3 Mantova