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Mantova vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Mantova
Mantova
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
3/29/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 31Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mantova40%
×Draw27%
Sudtirol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mantova
1.33
Sudtirol
1.17

Mantova creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 78 away

creates per match

Mantova
1.37
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Mantova
1.26
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Mantova+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mantova or draw
67%
Mantova or Sudtirol
73%
Draw or Sudtirol
60%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+
18%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals
74%
Mantova 2+ goals
38%
Mantova 3+ goals
15%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
69%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
33%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)
55%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Mantova defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mantova scores more
40%
level
27%
Sudtirol scores more
33%

Mantova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Mantova 2–0 Sudtirol

Mantova beat Sudtirol 2-0 in Serie B on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.