Sudtirol 2–2 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mantova

M. Rover 63'

S. Merkaj 4'

M. Aramu 90'

F. Galuppini 41'

12/14/2024

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sudtirol45%

×Draw27%

Mantova29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Sudtirol

1.42

Mantova

1.08

Sudtirol creates 31% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 38 away

1.14

creates per match

1.05

1.10

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Mantova

1.05

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Mantova

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Mantova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

71%

Sudtirol or Mantova

73%

Draw or Mantova

55%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

22%

Mantova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

76%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

41%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

17%

Mantova 1+ goals

66%

Mantova 2+ goals

29%

Mantova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

61%

Mantova (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Mantova defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mantova attack 1.05 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sudtirol scores more

45%

level

27%

Mantova scores more

29%

Sudtirol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

R. Odogwu

Sudtirol · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

5'

26'

36'

38'

41'

F. Galuppini↳ D. Mensah

54'

A. Debenedetti← D. Mensah

57'

Matteo SoliniPenalty cancelled

61'

A. Mallamo← T. Arrigoni

61'

63'

67'

70'

70'

70'

74'

78'

D. Bragantini← D. Wieser

78'

G. Fedel← T. Maggioni

90'

Mattia AramuMissed penalty

90+1'

J. Martini← R. Odogwu

90+1'

V. Crespi← M. Praszelik

90'

M. Aramu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolMantova

Overview

29%Possession71%

11Total Shots14

3Corners5

28Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target5

3Off Target4

3Blocked5

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

29%Possession71%

219Total Passes565

166Accurate Passes510

76%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

28Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Serie B: Sudtirol 2–2 Mantova

Sudtirol and Mantova drew 2-2 in Serie B on December 14, 2024.

Goals: S. Merkaj (4'), F. Galuppini (41'), M. Rover (63'), M. Aramu (90').

Mantova controlled possession (71%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.

Sudtirol vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sudtirol 2–2 Mantova