Sudtirol 0–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cesena

C. Shpendi 31'

10/25/2025

Serie B · Round 9Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sudtirol42%

×Draw28%

Cesena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.01

Sudtirol

1.26

Cesena

1.01

Sudtirol creates 25% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 39 away

1.14

creates per match

0.92

1.10

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Cesena

0.92

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Cesena

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

70%

Sudtirol or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

58%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

19%

Cesena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

72%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

36%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

13%

Cesena 1+ goals

64%

Cesena 2+ goals

27%

Cesena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

59%

Cesena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cesena attack 0.92 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sudtirol scores more

42%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

30%

Sudtirol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Klinsmann

Cesena · G

7.9

Match Events

24'

Filipe Bordon

31'

C. Shpendi↳ T. Berti

34'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

46'

M. Coulibaly← J. Martini

46'

F. Davi← H. El Kaouakibi

55'

A. Masiello← F. Bordon

62'

K. Zedadka← S. Davi

66'

M. Olivieri← C. Shpendi

73'

E. Adamo← R. Ciervo

73'

M. Guidi← T. Berti

78'

J. Italeng← R. Odogwu

80'

Federico Davi

80'

R. Celia← G. Frabotta

80'

S. Balde← J. Blesa

90+3'

Marco Olivieri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolCesena

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots5

8Corners4

16Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots5

2On Target1

6Off Target3

6Blocked1

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

374Total Passes477

263Accurate Passes374

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sudtirol vs Cesena

Cesena beat Sudtirol 1-0 in Serie B on October 25, 2025.

Goals: C. Shpendi (31').

Cesena controlled possession (55%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bolzano.

Sudtirol vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sudtirol vs Cesena