Cesena 1–0 Sudtirol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sudtirol

C. Shpendi 52'

11/3/2024

Serie B · Round 12Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cesena40%

×Draw27%

Sudtirol33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.20

Cesena

1.36

Sudtirol

1.20

Cesena creates 13% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 78 away

1.44

creates per match

1.08

1.31

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cesena

1.44

Sudtirol

1.08

allows per match

Cesena

1.31

Sudtirol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

67%

Cesena or Sudtirol

73%

Draw or Sudtirol

60%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

19%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

74%

Cesena 2+ goals

39%

Cesena 3+ goals

16%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

70%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

34%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

55%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.44 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cesena scores more

40%

level

27%

Sudtirol scores more

33%

Cesena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Ciofi

Cesena · D

8.3

Match Events

52'

C. Shpendi↳ A. Ciofi

59'

M. Antonucci← A. Kargbo

64'

N. Pietrangeli← L. Ceppitelli

64'

K. Zedadka← D. Casiraghi

64'

S. Merkaj← M. Rover

75'

M. Francesconi← T. Berti

75'

M. Praszelik← T. Arrigoni

79'

V. Crespi← S. Molina

85'

Emanuele Adamo

87'

Valerio Crespi

87'

S. Hraiech← S. Bastoni

88'

J. Ceesay← E. Adamo

88'

E. Tavşan← C. Shpendi

89'

Karim Zedadka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaSudtirol

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots5

8Corners4

12Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target2

4Off Target2

4Blocked1

5Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

499Total Passes485

421Accurate Passes402

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1