Sudtirol 1–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cesena

N. Pyyhtiä 27'

E. Tavşan 59'

4/5/2025

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sudtirol42%

×Draw28%

Cesena30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.01

Sudtirol

1.26

Cesena

1.01

Sudtirol creates 25% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 39 away

1.14

creates per match

0.92

1.10

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Cesena

0.92

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Cesena

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

70%

Sudtirol or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

58%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

19%

Cesena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

72%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

36%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

13%

Cesena 1+ goals

64%

Cesena 2+ goals

27%

Cesena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

59%

Cesena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Cesena attack 0.92 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sudtirol scores more

42%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

30%

Sudtirol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Tavşan

Cesena · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

Raffaele Celia

27'

N. Pyyhtiä↳ R. Odogwu

29'

42'

45+2'

46'

53'

A. Giorgini← H. El Kaouakibi

55'

M. Antonucci← G. Calò

59'

E. Tavşan↳ M. Antonucci

61'

Matteo Francesconi

62'

S. Davì← A. Barreca

62'

G. Gori← M. Rover

62'

D. Casiraghi← N. Pyyhtiä

78'

F. Tait← R. Kofler

78'

L. Mendicino← D. Šarić

79'

D. Donnarumma← E. Adamo

82'

Simone Davì

89'

S. Bastoni← E. Tavşan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolCesena

Overview

25%Possession75%

6Total Shots7

2Corners5

15Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots7

1On Target2

3Off Target2

2Blocked3

5Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

25%Possession75%

200Total Passes614

120Accurate Passes547

60%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Serie B: Sudtirol 1–1 Cesena

Sudtirol and Cesena drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 5, 2025.

Goals: N. Pyyhtiä (27'), E. Tavşan (59').

Cesena controlled possession (75%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.

Sudtirol vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Sudtirol 1–1 Cesena