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SUD America vs Rentistas — Segunda División 2026

SUD America
SUD America
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rentistas
Rentistas
12/3/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SUD America33%
×Draw28%
Rentistas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SUD America
1.09
Rentistas
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 83 away

creates per match

SUD America
1.03
Rentistas
1.16

allows per match

SUD America
1.21
Rentistas
1.16

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par
Rentistas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Rentistas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SUD America or draw
62%
SUD America or Rentistas
72%
Draw or Rentistas
67%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+
13%
Rentistas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals
66%
SUD America 2+ goals
30%
SUD America 3+ goals
10%
Rentistas 1+ goals
70%
Rentistas 2+ goals
33%
Rentistas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)
47%
Rentistas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Rentistas away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Rentistas defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rentistas attack 1.16 + SUD America defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SUD America scores more
33%
level
28%
Rentistas scores more
38%

Rentistas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rentistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SUD America vs Rentistas

SUD America and Rentistas drew 0-0 in Segunda División on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Obdulio Varela in Montevideo.