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Rentistas vs SUD America — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Rentistas
Rentistas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
SUD America
SUD America
8/14/2021Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 14Complejo Deportivo Rentistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rentistas41%
×Draw28%
SUD America31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rentistas
1.25
SUD America
1.04

Rentistas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rentistas
0.96
SUD America
0.82

allows per match

Rentistas
1.27
SUD America
1.55

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par
SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

SUD America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw
69%
Rentistas or SUD America
72%
Draw or SUD America
59%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+
18%
SUD America wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals
71%
Rentistas 2+ goals
36%
Rentistas 3+ goals
13%
SUD America 1+ goals
65%
SUD America 2+ goals
28%
SUD America 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)
57%
SUD America (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 0.96 + SUD America defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

SUD America attack 0.82 + Rentistas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rentistas scores more
41%
level
28%
SUD America scores more
31%

Rentistas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rentistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rentistas vs SUD America

SUD America beat Rentistas 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas in Montevideo.