Rentistas 1–1 SUD America: Result & Stats

Rentistas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SUD America

7/28/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 13Complejo Deportivo Rentistas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rentistas42%

×Draw29%

SUD America28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RentistasExpected goals in this matchSUD America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.93

Rentistas

1.21

SUD America

0.93

Rentistas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 70 away

1.14

creates per match

0.96

0.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rentistas

1.14

SUD America

0.96

allows per match

Rentistas

0.90

SUD America

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par

SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

SUD America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw

72%

Rentistas or SUD America

71%

Draw or SUD America

58%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+

19%

SUD America wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals

70%

Rentistas 2+ goals

34%

Rentistas 3+ goals

12%

SUD America 1+ goals

61%

SUD America 2+ goals

24%

SUD America 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)

60%

SUD America (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.90 · 83 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 1.14 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

SUD America attack 0.96 + Rentistas defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rentistas scores more

42%

level

29%

SUD America scores more

28%

Rentistas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rentistas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff