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SUD America vs Boston River — League #270 2026

SUD America
SUD America
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
L. Melazzi 67'
11/22/2017League #270League #270 · Round 13Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SUD America46%
×Draw29%
Boston River25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SUD America
1.23
Boston River
0.83

SUD America creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

SUD America
1.33
Boston River
1.00

allows per match

SUD America
0.67
Boston River
1.13

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SUD America or draw
75%
SUD America or Boston River
71%
Draw or Boston River
54%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+
20%
Boston River wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals
71%
SUD America 2+ goals
35%
SUD America 3+ goals
13%
Boston River 1+ goals
56%
Boston River 2+ goals
20%
Boston River 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)
65%
Boston River (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.33 + Boston River defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Boston River attack 1.00 + SUD America defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SUD America scores more
46%
level
29%
Boston River scores more
25%

SUD America at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SUD America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
L. Melazzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SUD America vs Boston River

SUD America beat Boston River 1-0 in League #270 on November 22, 2017.

Goals: L. Melazzi (67').

The match was played at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo).