SUD America 0–1 Boston River: Result & Stats

SUD America

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Boston River

Federico Rodríguez 19'

10/8/2016

Primera División - Apertura · Round 7Estadio Municipal Casto Martínez Laguarda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SUD America34%

×Draw28%

Boston River38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SUD AmericaExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.19

SUD America

1.12

Boston River

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 85 away

1.00

creates per match

1.04

1.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

SUD America

1.00

Boston River

1.04

allows per match

SUD America

1.33

Boston River

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SUD America or draw

62%

SUD America or Boston River

72%

Draw or Boston River

66%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+

14%

Boston River wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals

67%

SUD America 2+ goals

31%

SUD America 3+ goals

10%

Boston River 1+ goals

70%

Boston River 2+ goals

33%

Boston River 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)

48%

Boston River (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.00 + Boston River defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Boston River attack 1.04 + SUD America defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SUD America scores more

34%

level

28%

Boston River scores more

38%

Boston River at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Federico Rodríguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff