Boston River 2–0 SUD America: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SUD America

B. Barja 73'

F. Labandeira 56'

7/31/2021

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Boston River44%

×Draw27%

SUD America29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchSUD America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.09

Boston River

1.39

SUD America

1.09

Boston River creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Boston River

1.18

SUD America

0.90

allows per match

Boston River

1.29

SUD America

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

SUD America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

71%

Boston River or SUD America

73%

Draw or SUD America

56%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

21%

SUD America wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

75%

Boston River 2+ goals

40%

Boston River 3+ goals

16%

SUD America 1+ goals

66%

SUD America 2+ goals

30%

SUD America 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

60%

SUD America (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + SUD America defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

SUD America attack 0.90 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Boston River scores more

44%

level

27%

SUD America scores more

29%

Boston River at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

45+2'

45+3'

45+3'

52'

56'

64'

P. Mouche← M. Camarda

64'

A. Barán← B. Giménez

64'

J. Ramírez← P. Olivera

67'

P. Furtado← F. Rodríguez

71'

J. Perdomo← J. Ramírez

73'

B. Barja

83'

L. Olaizola← F. Labandeira

84'

E. Larrosa← B. Barja

87'

A. Machado← P. Silva Torrejón

90'

Joaquin Pereyra

90+5'

T. Andrade

90+5'

G. Alvarez

Boston

SUD

1

4

2

21

10

▼

8

27

23

34

7

▼

Olivera

9

▼

Camarda

21

Falcón

24

▼

6

2

16

5

29

11

▼

Rodríguez

30

⚽

▼

Labandeir

18

⚽

▼

Barja

14

Fernández

Manager: I. Ithurralde

67'▲P. Furtado←▼F. Rodríguez

83'▲L. Olaizola←▼F. Labandeira

84'▲E. Larrosa←▼B. Barja

87'▲A. Machado←▼P. Silva Torrejón

Boston River substitutes

28Furtado26Olaizola9Larrosa22Machado1Silva7Fernández10Moreira20Álvarez23Valdez27Romero

Manager: C. Biaggio

64'▲P. Mouche←▼M. Camarda

64'▲A. Barán←▼B. Giménez

64'▲J. Ramírez←▼P. Olivera

71'▲J. Perdomo←▼J. Ramírez

SUD America substitutes

11Mouche14Barán29Ramírez40Perdomo5Pedra12González17Hernández22Cayetano32Panzariello33Toma

Match Recap: Boston River vs SUD America

Boston River beat SUD America 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on July 31, 2021.

Goals: F. Labandeira (56'), B. Barja (73').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.

Boston River vs SUD America — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Boston River vs SUD America