Stuttgart U19 3–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Stuttgart U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

E. Korkut 79' (pen)

K. Freßle 70'

S. Mule 68'

M. Len 86' (pen)

A. Slimani 10' (pen)

4/12/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 10Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stuttgart U1950%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.52

Stuttgart U19

2.07

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.52

Stuttgart U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 68 away

2.68

creates per match

1.68

1.37

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.68

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.37

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

72%

Stuttgart U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

79%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

50%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

29%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

87%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

61%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

34%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

78%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

45%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.07

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

28%

Stuttgart U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. SlimaniPenalty

39'

D. Etemovski← K. Affo

46'

S. Mule← D. Hajdini

46'

T. Igwesi← D. Mossi-Sezene

65'

L. Preuß← I. Knežević

65'

C. Olivier← A. Janjić

68'

S. Mule

70'

K. Freßle

73'

E. Arden← S. Affo

74'

Xie Chujun← L. Penna

79'

E. KorkutPenalty

85'

J. Oettinger← Y. Spalt

85'

M. Rohm← M. Tsigkas

85'

N. Sevinmez← L. Mentzel

86'

M. LenPenalty

Stuttgart

Fortuna

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲S. Mule←▼D. Hajdini

65'▲L. Preuß←▼I. Knežević

65'▲C. Olivier←▼A. Janjić

74'▲Xie Chujun←▼L. Penna

85'▲J. Oettinger←▼Y. Spalt

85'▲M. Rohm←▼M. Tsigkas

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

MulePreußOlivierChujunOettingerRohmStojčević

Manager: E. Vural

39'▲D. Etemovski←▼K. Affo

46'▲T. Igwesi←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

73'▲E. Arden←▼S. Affo

85'▲N. Sevinmez←▼L. Mentzel

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

EtemovskiIgwesiArdenSevinmezGavenko

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 3–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Slimani (10' pen), S. Mule (68'), K. Freßle (70'), E. Korkut (79' pen), M. Len (86' pen).

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.

Stuttgart U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 3–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19