Stuttgart U19 2–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Stuttgart U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

D. Knappe 14'

R. Paula 9'

L. Thissen 26'

12/11/2021

DFB Junioren Pokal · Quarter-finalsRasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stuttgart U1952%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.24

Stuttgart U19

1.86

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.24

Stuttgart U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

1.80

0.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

0.67

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

75%

Stuttgart U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

77%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

48%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

29%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

84%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

55%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

28%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

71%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

35%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.33 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Stuttgart U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

52%

level

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

25%

Stuttgart U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Paula

14'

D. Knappe

26'

L. Thissen

62'

C. Drakas← Luis Ribeiro

72'

M. Rommel← M. Stüttgen

75'

N. Garić← L. Wagemann

82'

M. Wagner← D. Knappe

85'

S. Soghomonian← L. Thissen

90+2'

P. König← R. Paula

90+1'

T. Weingarten← M. Rommel

Stuttgart

Fortuna

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Knappe

Laupheime

Littig

⚽

▼

Paula

▼

Ribeiro

Kastanara

Manager: N. Willig

62'▲C. Drakas←▼Luis Ribeiro

82'▲M. Wagner←▼D. Knappe

90+2'▲P. König←▼R. Paula

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

DrakasWagnerKönigScharnerMestreSahinAmbrosius

Manager: S. Suker

72'▲M. Rommel←▼M. Stüttgen

75'▲N. Garić←▼L. Wagemann

85'▲S. Soghomonian←▼L. Thissen

90+1'▲T. Weingarten←▼M. Rommel

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

RommelGarićSoghomonianWeingartenAdibelliGiesenKrenc