Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2–1 Stuttgart U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stuttgart U19

K. Affo 32'

M. Herwerth 30' (OG)

D. Migalić 20'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 5Paul-Janes-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1928%

×Draw21%

Stuttgart U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.14

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Stuttgart U19

2.14

Stuttgart U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 74 away

1.80

creates per match

2.74

1.54

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.80

Stuttgart U19

2.74

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.54

Stuttgart U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or draw

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 or Stuttgart U19

79%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

72%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

13%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

45%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

20%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

88%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

63%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.80 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.74 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

28%

level

21%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

51%

Stuttgart U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Migalić

30'

M. HerwerthOwn goal

32'

K. Affo

46'

Yang Si-Woo← D. Mossi-Sezene

46'

D. Hajdini← M. Herwerth

46'

L. Preuß← K. Kempf

66'

Xie Alexander← K. Freßle

81'

C. Kroll-Thiel← D. Migalić

81'

T. Santos← M. Tsigkas

85'

T. Igwesi← K. Affo

90'

E. Arden← L. Çalışkan

90+2'

T. Malykh← A. Slimani

Fortuna

Stuttgart

Stojčević

🥅

▼

Herwerth

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Affo

Nikolaou

▼

Mossi-Sez

Manager: E. Vural

46'▲Yang Si-Woo←▼D. Mossi-Sezene

85'▲T. Igwesi←▼K. Affo

90'▲E. Arden←▼L. Çalışkan

90+2'▲T. Malykh←▼A. Slimani

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

Si-WooIgwesiArdenMalykhEl-ChaarGavenkoSevinmez

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲D. Hajdini←▼M. Herwerth

46'▲L. Preuß←▼K. Kempf

66'▲Xie Alexander←▼K. Freßle

81'▲C. Kroll-Thiel←▼D. Migalić

81'▲T. Santos←▼M. Tsigkas

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

HajdiniPreußAlexanderKroll-ThielSantosKechlimparis