Stuttgart U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 73+ matches
Stuttgart U1944%
Borussia M'bach U1935%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stuttgart U19 creates 12% more chances
Season form · 73 home / 73 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes73
- No27
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stuttgart U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches
Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.06
Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Stuttgart U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes
Head to Head
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Greuther Fürth U19
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Meppen U19
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Havelse U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
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Ulm U19
Erzgebirge Aue U19
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Holstein Kiel U19
Hansa Rostock U19
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BAK 07 U19
Darmstadt 98 U19
Jahn Regensburg U19
Hallescher FC U19
Fortuna Köln U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
Unterhaching U19
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
Hombrucher SV U19
Rot-Weiß Walldorf U19
Blumenthaler SV U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
FK Pirmasens U19
Schott Mainz U19
Osnabrück U19
Lübeck U19
Elversberg U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
SC Borea Dresden U19
Wacker Burghausen U19
SG Unterrath U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stuttgart U19 host Borussia M'bach U19 on Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the U19 Bundesliga 2019/2020 season.
Stuttgart U19 1 – 2 Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19 beat Stuttgart U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 1, 2025.
Goals: W. Boteli (20'), E. Korkut (27'), D. Berko (31').
The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.